Mast Family Office

Category: Portfolio Updates

  • Critical Minerals Theme & Portfolio Update

    Hello everyone, I apologize for the long absence. I entered a busy phase of IRL over the holidays and am only now emerging for “optional” things like writing this newsletter. I have kept trading during this time and I’ve been doing well, continuing to slowly grow the accounts. This is the biggest account I trade, which is back above ATH after Nov. 21 low:

    For scale, it’s approx. 3x from the lows on charts to the highs. So as you can see, my trading style involves eye-watering and stomach-churning volatility. I’m slowly trying to reduce the volatility without losing the gains and I believe I am slowly succeeding.

    Commons Portfolio Update

    Here’s the current commons portfolio. A lot of these green gains are actually lower than reality because I derisked to a ton of cash around the Greenland tariff threats, bottom-shorted, and then bought back my longs, but surprisingly came out decent nonetheless. But I did sacrifice some profits and some vanity cost bases in the process. However, keeping my gains is my top goal (which I did very poorly with early in my trading career), so I am happy to sacrifice some gains for that, especially given the abundance of gain opportunities these days.

    I’d be happy to discuss various of these positions and trades (feel free to send Twitter or Discord DM or email), but I’m going to go straight to my largest position which is the theme that I believe will dominate this week if not the next few months: USAR.

    Critical Minerals

    Venu expressed my position perfectly:

    My belief that critical minerals are setting up again for the next leg of the run is why I’ve been adding back or bolstering positions in USAR, ASPI, TMQ, LAC, UAMY, URAA, PSRHF, UUUU, LEU, MP and not selling my GPHOF or NAK.

    Before we dive in, here are a few summary reports that are AI-generated. As always, don’t assume the facts and figures are correct. I find that market caps are especially often out of date. Double-check important details. But I find these directionally correct and very helpful to orient myself in a space. Here are both the reports and a few of my favorite tickers. I’ll provide charts further down.

    Rare Earths (REEs)

    USAR

    This ticker received fantastic news over the weekend, which will not only lead to an enormous gap up Monday, but should re-ignite the entire sector:

    Of course there was options flow before, which will add some gamma squeeze on big gap up:

    Not to mention shorts chose exactly the wrong time to up their short positions:

    https://twitter.com/spacanpanman/status/2015278670873612704?s=20

    Here’s my USAR chart. The ghostly blue candles are the OKLO analogue that I believe USAR will follow. USAR dipped lower and took longer to bottom than the analogue led me to believe, but I believe Monday’s open will get us back on track for that very rapid move from $20 to $40.

    If you’ve paid attention to my charting, you’ll notice a profusion of new indicators from Startup.io. I’ve historically been under the impression indicators are overrated, and that’s largely true. Price action is king. The further that you get from PA into layers of derivatives, the noisier the signal, in general. However, even though I’ve tested a handful of similar indicator suites over the years, nothing comes close to this accuracy. Looking at past signals is just eye-opening. There are three panels of blue (bullish) and pink/red (bearish) diamonds (on price panel and on the first two oscillators) and then next is the “Mountain” which shows how many bulls are in the stock, and then finally the last three are momentum oscillators that flip blue for bullish and red for bearish.

    As you can see above, we have 2 of 3 blue diamonds (BD) in effect on the weekly. And we have 3 of 3 on daily below:

    TMRC

    This has 3/3 blue diamonds on daily, but only 1 of 3 diamonds on weekly:

    It needs to get above the 20 WMA (weekly moving average) and 100 DMA (daily moving average) to confirm the next leg up. TMRC is the value alternative to USAR, trading at a significant discount to the USAR market cap compared to its 20% stake in Round Top, but they also do not have any ownership of USAR’s REE refining or magnet manufacturing projects. TMRC also does not have the memeability of USAR, which I expect to drive it, like OKLO, way beyond its intrinsic or expected value and simply serve as a proxy bid on the importance of US-based REE supply chains.

    UUUU

    UUUU is bullish on all indicators (for weekly / daily; has 2/3 blue diamonds on monthly) and is just breaching highs not seen since ~2011. UUUU is the chart among REEs that is showing the most relative strength, though that could change at open. I’m not sure which I prefer as a bullish signal: relative strength or a nice flat top setup with a likely quick move back to highs (like USAR, TMRC, MP).

    Daily:

    Weekly:

    Here are the monthly candles to see the big picture:

    MP

    MP has the unique position of already having received investment from the USG/DOD, thus already trades at a USG-assured premium. It has 2/3 blue diamonds on both daily and weekly timeframes. Classical TA shows a nice little contraction flag and then a likely move to $85.06 triggered by this REE news and the TA.

    Antimony – UAMY

    UAMY had a big run, healthy pullback to double-bottom on 200 dma (black), and now has regained strong bullish momentum (3/3 blue diamonds on daily) and looks to be heading back to recent highs. It’s gotten above all significant volume shelves and looks to be headed to $13.52 (1.618 fib extension) at minimum if not $20ish recent highs. It was this bullish setup and my expectation of rotation back into critical minerals that made so I already have a position.

    Weekly has 2/3 blue diamonds and good oscillators:

    On the monthly we see a perfect retest of the June 2012 high of $4.95 after breaking it with authority. The monthly only shows 1 of 3 blue diamonds and momentum is stretched on monthly TF.

    Tungsten – ALM

    ALM climbing this log channel with 3/3 BDs:

    Weekly 2/3 BDs, just breaking out of previous highs and putting in strong engulfing candle:

    The monthly gives perspective on how absolutely parabolic this name is. It does have 2/3 BD on monthly, but some momentum oscillators seems to be slowing and we’re sitting at a confluence of some fibs, so caution is warranted. I do not have a valuation on ALM, so can’t say whether it’s stretched or not with current tungsten prices, but my assumption is that it is.

    Niobium, Scandium, and Titanium – NB

    NB has a really nice setup that is breaking out of a flat-top consolidation zone and is ready to move back to recent highs on daily with 3/3 BD. There is some volume shelf above.

    On the weekly there’s definitely some overhead supply and volume shelf. However, we are coming off a much bigger volume shelf, which is reassuring. 2/3 BDs.

    And finally the monthly gives us a perspective on the big picture:

    Graphite – GPHOF / TSX:GPH, NVX, WWR, NMG

    GPHOF / TSX:GPH

    High/tight flag above highs. Bullish. 3/3 BDs.

    This stock honors log fibs nicely. On the verge of major breakout on monthly. 3/3 BDs.

    Here’s my full DD on why I love GPHOF so much:

    NVX

    Perfect entry with great R/R for NVX, 2/3 BDs on weekly:

    WWR

    Big pop, retest of 200 WMA (black), now peeking above the volume shelf and fib. No resistance between here and $1.88. 2/3 BDs.

    NMG

    This is coiled into very tight launchpad right under 200 WMA (black) just at top of major volume shelf. This is after breaking out of long downtrend. This is one of my favorite technical looks. Only 1/3 BDs on weekly.

    But we do have 3/3 BD on daily:

    Copper – SCCO, FCX

    SCCO

    FCX

    Breaking out of base since early 2021, 3/3 BDs.

    Vanadium – LGO

    This is an interesting play, make sure to read the FA/DD. Vanadium is coming out of a time period of oversupply, thus the cheap valuations and unprofitable companies. If the supply/demand situation inverts and the company is re-rated from perennially losing money and barely surviving to being profitable, that is one of my favorite places to buy a company as it flips from discount to premium. On the verge of breaking DTL after earlier fake breakout (love to see those bowties), 3/3 BDs on weekly.

    Manganese – TMC

    I’m sure there are better fundamentals than TMC for Manganese, but I really like the chart and interest around the unique deep sea mining method, which has the ingredients needed to greatly exceed discounted FCF model valuation. Chart looks poised to break above that $10 SPAC level after strong wrong and almost a year of volatile consolidation.

    On daily (3/3 BD), we just broke out of tight consolidation coil:

    Gallium – FPLSF / TSX:VNP, AXTI

    FPLSF / TSX:VNP

    I’m not going to chart this as I don’t love the chart. Trades thin. Gotta love the FA and accumulate for long term if you believe.

    AXTI

    AXTI is a very popular ticker that is breaking down with lots of bearish signals. Could just be retest on monthly, though. Too many better opportunities for me to take something breaking down out of a log channel.

  • Portfolio Update: Dec. 5, 2025

    Portfolio Update: Dec. 5, 2025

    It’s been way longer than I would have wished since the last portfolio update, but here we are. Two things caused the gap:

    • Momentum drawdown: the momentum sector (which I primarily trade) suffered a big drawdown. My portfolios were down approximately 25%. I was doing a lot of shorter-term, tactical, defensive trading that did not lend itself to the longer swing-trading style communicated by these portfolio updates.
    • New baby: We had our 3rd child born around the middle of November. Combining that with Thanksgiving holidays, it’s been an incredibly busy time where I had little time for any extras.

    All that being said, I really felt we had set a bottom Monday, Nov. 24 when we regained the falling wedge and 100 DMA on NQ:

    It was at that point that it would have been appropriate to start sharing portfolio updates again, but it was Thanksgiving week and I barely had time to pore over charts for myself, much less take the time to share my thoughts.

    Without further ado, here is my portfolio as of market close Thursday, Dec. 4:

    Yesterday I sold about 30-40% of my ASTX position (which was massively oversized) as we were around ASTS $68, front-running resistance confluence:

    It’s both a testament to the size of the position before yesterday and the size of the move that it remained my largest position (as you can see above) after the profit-taking.

    I moved those funds into AMZU (AMZN) NAK RXRX BB and EOSE, primarily.

    I think we’re due for an enormous move up on AMZN and the entry could not be more textbook, after a bowtie fake-breakout, test of 200 DMA, and then reclaim/retest of 50/100 DMA right at this little volume shelf:

    I think RXRX is gearing up for another move to test top of this base around the $6.80 mark at minimum, if not finally doing a base break. I was a little late getting in, but there is value in confirmation vs. catching falling knives:

    I was waiting on $1.30 on NAK due to a buddy’s call, but I should have just trusted my blue DTL which seems to have marked the bottom:

    BB is a great entry down here, gearing up for another (closer-together!) attempt at major DTL break:

    EOSE is showing great R/S and I wish I would have gotten more earlier, but such is life. Looking for an opportunity to really size this back up and make it a much larger position:

    And finally, here are some more charts from my portfolio:

    VELO closed above the 200 DMA, which it has not done since March of 2023! Momentum is very clearly shifting to the upside here coming off this big volume shelf. It’s my second largest position and extremely undervalued. All of the smartest fundamental minds on Fintwit have been pounding the table for weeks. Once we clear the $6.37 fib, it doesn’t seem to have much resistance until $9-11 area. And this thing trades really quick due to low float, so we could see a really quick doubling on this one, IMO. #NFA

    LUNR is quite simply the most sure-fire bet on the market, IMO. It makes me nervous to say that because inevitably that kind of pride and certainty comes before a fall, but that is my current belief. They should be awarded the $4b contract (double its current market cap) imminently and there are no other serious contenders.

    USAR dipped way lower than my OKLO analogue was expecting (the ghostly blue bars), but it’s began the crazy upside leg of the analogue. It seems like the USG is gearing up for another cycle of REE / critical mineral headlines and USAR is by far the best name to own, in my opinion. It’s in shovel-ready Texas (friendly jurisdiction) and has the perfect name and ticker to represent the importance of REE to the US economy and USG’s strategic interests in a way that will way outstrip its fundamentals, just like OKLO did.

    I’ve been following WULF for a long time. I had about half my portfolio in it around $2.50 in June of 2024. It was a major winner for me, but I sold it all on the first big move to $6.51 and didn’t effectively play the other moves. However, it appears that the market is finally realizing the HPC-optionality value of these erstwhile Bitcoin miners (a narrative I was all-in on way too early) and @PennyCheck did some great work connecting the dots for WULF as a major Google TPU beneficiary. So I got back on the recent pullback to $11, buying a major WULX position.

    I’ll try to share charts of the rest of the portfolio this weekend, along with charts not yet in my portfolio that I am watching.

  • Portfolio Update: Nov. 7, 2025

    Portfolio Update: Nov. 7, 2025

    It’s been a tough couple of weeks. My commons-only portfolio peaked on Oct. 13 with a crazy blowoff top. It has since retraced about 25% to… Oct. 6 levels.

    I finally flipped bearish Tuesday, went max short, made about 10% portfolio gains with MSTZ UVXY PLTZ RGTZ and QBTZ. I sold half my shorts this morning within an hour or two of open and sold the rest in the afternoon. I’ve been flipping long all day.

    Commons-only Portfolio

    Here’s how I’ve re-allocated:

    Here are a few favorite charts:

    EOSE

    USAR

    ASTS

    LASR

    LUNR

    Sorry if you were one of the ones that was shaken out, but I loved the gap-down capitulation today after the deep red candles of the last few days. I market-bought lots at open and kept adding throughout the day.

    AMZN

    Today was a perfect breakout retest.

    NET

    Today was a perfect entry on NET.

    TLRY

    TLRY low-risk entry vs. $1.21 fib:

    KODK

    Here’s the AI report on KODK.

  • Portfolio Update & Additional Charts/DD

    Portfolio Update & Additional Charts/DD

    I did very little trading or research today as I was laser-focused on building my AI analysis tool for Fintwit. However, I did sell UUUU as the thesis of the call flow on it seems dead. I also took a little bit of profit on ZCSH (and my ZEC on Coinbase, which is not included here). Finally I reduced risk in MSOX by trimming some of that. And then I added some LPTH and LASR.

    I’ll continue to provide the basic theses for my top positions with a further tranche today. Somehow yesterday I accidentally skipped over VELO entirely unintentionally… and then it had a 25% day today.

    VELO

    Once VELO breaks above the 200 dma (black sma), I would expect a fairly quick move to $10-12 at minimum.

    VELO’s biggest customer is SpaceX and there is really good evidence that they are at forefront of providing spare parts for DoD as part of DoD’s urgent, strategic pivot to fully onshore military supply chains and to simply save money and increase velocity/readiness.

    The legendary King Tut sums it up:

    LASR

    LASR is straining at the leash, trying to start the next leg here after a volatile, upward-straining consolidation period.

    The move from $33 to $46 should come quickly once buyers decide to leave this level behind.

    My man Mike is always at the cutting edge of defense tech and asks some leading questions:

  • First Portfolio Update and DD/Chart Dump

    First Portfolio Update and DD/Chart Dump

    Many gurus alert specific trade entries and exits. I have no desire to ever do that. I feel like my entry/exit game is one of the parts of trading I have the most to grow in. (If I have time, I share when I enter or exit if I feel like it might be helpful to people.)

    However, what I do find easy to do is share updates on the commons-only portfolios I manage at the end of each trading day. Sharing one’s actual portfolio construction and performance is extremely rare in the stock trading guru world, but I feel like it’s very helpful. And it’s an easy way to quickly share an overall view of my convictions and emphases.

    This is different than my options portfolio. I feel like I am still in the process of learning how to trade options and I don’t feel confident enough to recommend that you follow these trades, though I do often share the individual trades anyway. My options portfolio is a small fraction of the size of the commons portfolios.

    For this time, I will go over my fundamental or technical theses for each of the top 9 picks.

    RAAQ

    RAAQ is just a place to park cash very near to SPAC NAV, with an industry team in a hot sector:

    CCCX / CCCXW

    Infleqtion has a keynote at the Nvidia AI GTC conference. They’ve repeatedly hinted that the revelations will be very surprising. Nvidia has said too many positive things about integrating CUDA into Infleqtion’s QC to list them all. You can look at the below tweet by The Undefined Mystic, but you really ought to read every tweet where he mentioned the ticker. @PennyCheck is an absolute elite follow on FinTwit and I owe a large amount of my portfolio’s outperformance to his DD.

    MSOX / MSOS

    You can read my whole AI DD report on the likelihood of the Trump Administration rescheduling marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III before the end of the year. I believe it is imminent, it’s only been delayed due to shutdown.

    CONL / COIN

    This is one of the best technical setups in the stock market right now and they have earnings Thursday which will likely be the spark. The repeated pop-above, pop-under action for the critical $368.90 level is extremely bullish. In setups like these, I find the TA is simply presaging the fundamental news that will send this. (And there’s no shortage of likely fundamental catalysts.)

    Gregory is one of the best TA guys I know with a unique set of procedures for finding very explosive stocks. And he is mega-long and excited about this setup:

    https://twitter.com/gregory_FTA/status/1974199953691193758

    CODI

    For more DD, check out @PennyCheck’s posts

    BB

    I love the chart and @ChartShark22 is seeing tape targets of $30 to $100.

    This kind of EPS flipping from years of negative to breakeven and projected profits is the kind of inflection point that has made me so much money in the past as a stock breaks out of its secular downtrend and a fundamental re-rating occurs. Blackberry has finally executed a turnaround, shedding distractions, being disciplined with capex and opex, and building an incredible roster of customers using their secure, stable embedded OS for mission-critical devices.

    CRCL / CRCG

    Absolutely bonkers 200% OTM call flow:

    The below tweet is not by one of my vetted, trusted traders with a great track record, but he did a good job of summarizing the thesis of this trade:

    I would add the increasing the usage of stablecoins is a Trump Administration priority because it’s a revolutionary technology that increases demand for USD for international trade settlement. But most importantly, they’re backed by T-bills, which given growing demand for stablecoins, has become a significant downward pressure on USG borrowing rates and a replacement for the shrinking pool of USG bond purchasers. So I could see a “surprise” announcement of USG support at any time that would absolutely send this.

    LUNR

    This company is by far the leading candidate to get a NASA contract worth more than 2x its current market cap. Execs have expressed confidence in this on earnings calls and I’ve confirmed with a NASA engineer that the company’s assertions are not hot air. Below is the best tweet, but you really need to read them all.

    RXRX

    Here’s the best DD thread from a great DD guy:

    I also adore the chart:

    This is the exact chart and story that has made me so much money over the years. And we still have a great entry here.