It’s been way longer than I would have wished since the last portfolio update, but here we are. Two things caused the gap:
- Momentum drawdown: the momentum sector (which I primarily trade) suffered a big drawdown. My portfolios were down approximately 25%. I was doing a lot of shorter-term, tactical, defensive trading that did not lend itself to the longer swing-trading style communicated by these portfolio updates.
- New baby: We had our 3rd child born around the middle of November. Combining that with Thanksgiving holidays, it’s been an incredibly busy time where I had little time for any extras.
All that being said, I really felt we had set a bottom Monday, Nov. 24 when we regained the falling wedge and 100 DMA on NQ:
It was at that point that it would have been appropriate to start sharing portfolio updates again, but it was Thanksgiving week and I barely had time to pore over charts for myself, much less take the time to share my thoughts.
Without further ado, here is my portfolio as of market close Thursday, Dec. 4:
Yesterday I sold about 30-40% of my ASTX position (which was massively oversized) as we were around ASTS $68, front-running resistance confluence:
It’s both a testament to the size of the position before yesterday and the size of the move that it remained my largest position (as you can see above) after the profit-taking.
I moved those funds into AMZU (AMZN) NAK RXRX BB and EOSE, primarily.
I think we’re due for an enormous move up on AMZN and the entry could not be more textbook, after a bowtie fake-breakout, test of 200 DMA, and then reclaim/retest of 50/100 DMA right at this little volume shelf:
I think RXRX is gearing up for another move to test top of this base around the $6.80 mark at minimum, if not finally doing a base break. I was a little late getting in, but there is value in confirmation vs. catching falling knives:
I was waiting on $1.30 on NAK due to a buddy’s call, but I should have just trusted my blue DTL which seems to have marked the bottom:
BB is a great entry down here, gearing up for another (closer-together!) attempt at major DTL break:
EOSE is showing great R/S and I wish I would have gotten more earlier, but such is life. Looking for an opportunity to really size this back up and make it a much larger position:
And finally, here are some more charts from my portfolio:
VELO closed above the 200 DMA, which it has not done since March of 2023! Momentum is very clearly shifting to the upside here coming off this big volume shelf. It’s my second largest position and extremely undervalued. All of the smartest fundamental minds on Fintwit have been pounding the table for weeks. Once we clear the $6.37 fib, it doesn’t seem to have much resistance until $9-11 area. And this thing trades really quick due to low float, so we could see a really quick doubling on this one, IMO. #NFA
LUNR is quite simply the most sure-fire bet on the market, IMO. It makes me nervous to say that because inevitably that kind of pride and certainty comes before a fall, but that is my current belief. They should be awarded the $4b contract (double its current market cap) imminently and there are no other serious contenders.
USAR dipped way lower than my OKLO analogue was expecting (the ghostly blue bars), but it’s began the crazy upside leg of the analogue. It seems like the USG is gearing up for another cycle of REE / critical mineral headlines and USAR is by far the best name to own, in my opinion. It’s in shovel-ready Texas (friendly jurisdiction) and has the perfect name and ticker to represent the importance of REE to the US economy and USG’s strategic interests in a way that will way outstrip its fundamentals, just like OKLO did.
I’ve been following WULF for a long time. I had about half my portfolio in it around $2.50 in June of 2024. It was a major winner for me, but I sold it all on the first big move to $6.51 and didn’t effectively play the other moves. However, it appears that the market is finally realizing the HPC-optionality value of these erstwhile Bitcoin miners (a narrative I was all-in on way too early) and @PennyCheck did some great work connecting the dots for WULF as a major Google TPU beneficiary. So I got back on the recent pullback to $11, buying a major WULX position.
I’ll try to share charts of the rest of the portfolio this weekend, along with charts not yet in my portfolio that I am watching.
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